Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.019523 0.022164 0.025040 0.028406 0.032240 0.036473 0.041505
2025-03-16 0.015042 0.018579 0.022774 0.028124 0.034775 0.042789 0.053202
2025-03-23 0.013070 0.017094 0.022150 0.028986 0.038013 0.049562 0.065520
2025-03-30 0.011036 0.015115 0.020486 0.028101 0.038661 0.052850 0.073469
2025-04-06 0.009659 0.013767 0.019400 0.027721 0.039762 0.056645 0.082281
2025-04-13 0.008363 0.012346 0.018008 0.026681 0.039714 0.058696 0.088675
2025-04-20 0.007825 0.011936 0.017977 0.027553 0.042459 0.064955 0.101820
2025-04-27 0.007319 0.011507 0.017852 0.028232 0.044927 0.070969 0.115136
2025-05-04 0.006919 0.011190 0.017850 0.029073 0.047687 0.077640 0.130113
2025-05-11 0.006340 0.010523 0.017224 0.028827 0.048631 0.081431 0.140650
2025-05-18 0.005885 0.010014 0.016796 0.028851 0.049993 0.085988 0.152880
2025-05-25 0.005405 0.009415 0.016159 0.028445 0.050552 0.089188 0.162977
2025-06-01 0.005125 0.009142 0.016068 0.029007 0.052914 0.095836 0.180160
2025-06-08 0.004734 0.008640 0.015531 0.028722 0.053720 0.099772 0.192736
2025-06-15 0.004555 0.008502 0.015630 0.029603 0.056757 0.108077 0.214506
2025-06-22 0.004147 0.007901 0.014825 0.028699 0.056288 0.109671 0.223161
2025-06-29 0.003847 0.007479 0.014315 0.028311 0.056775 0.113132 0.235896
2025-07-06 0.003495 0.006923 0.013503 0.027248 0.055803 0.113583 0.242380
2025-07-13 0.003398 0.006865 0.013655 0.028138 0.058901 0.122574 0.267965
2025-07-20 0.003286 0.006765 0.013711 0.028832 0.061644 0.131067 0.293328
2025-07-27 0.003197 0.006704 0.013842 0.029692 0.064815 0.140748 0.322347
2025-08-03 0.003006 0.006414 0.013473 0.029441 0.065529 0.145138 0.339669
2025-08-10 0.002855 0.006196 0.013239 0.029466 0.066854 0.150995 0.361025